Adobe has updated the penetration statistics for Flash Player. Flash Player 9, which is required for Flex 2 applications, is currently installed on over 90% of Internet connected computers in mature markets (defined as Europe, Japan, the US and Canada). In emerging markets its at 89.4%.
What's this mean for RIA developers like yourself? Historically development for Flash has taken off when the Flash Player has reached 80% penetration - compare when YouTube took off with the release of Flash Player 8. At 90% for Flash Player 9, most end developers are comfortable developing applications in Flex 2, knowing that 90% of Internet connected desktops can access the application.
Adobe has already announced that Flex 3 applications will run in Flash Player 9. Flex 3 applications will not required Flash Player 10.
Comments
I'd say "99% of People Can View Flex 2 Applications"
I'd be a little more explicit... 90% can run Flex 2 applications without having to install a new runtime. Probably 99% actually are capable of running Flex 2 applications. I left out 1% for those on Windows 95 and BSD. :)
... even more strictly,
... even more strictly, there's currently 6.75 billion people on the planet, but still less than one billion computers. Mobile pricing is coming down, and we're reaching a wider percentage than before, but there's still more to go.
(And yes, I agree that there are very low audience costs when using Flex 2 for development today. Some people on the boards still aren't up-to-date with the news, though, so we've gotta keep repeating it.... ;-)
jd/adobe
Good points guys. Thanks
Good points guys. Thanks for the clarifications.
Mike
Reality
Actually, having just been through a painful process of having a Flex app on our homepage and watching our traffic plummet and then finding out it was because the people coming to our site were not able to view it with their version of Flash *and* finding out the Flash upgrade process was broken for many users- I'd say Adobromedia are playing funny with their numbers like they usually do.
re: "anonymous"
"I'd say Adobromedia are playing funny with their numbers like they usually do."
When alleging such things, you really should bet your own reputation.
Your site may definitely differ from consumer net norms. Go read the methodology and the standard disclaimers. If you've got a specific beef I'd like to try to resolve it.
jd/adobe
JD- we worked together
And you know full well the fun they play with those penetration numbers.
And after we removed the Flex app, our traffic returned to normal. The problem was definitely with Flex and the Player. I've got no beef, I've got the facts that our 'consumer net norm(?)' Flex 2 app failed. And that old moniker of read the docs doesn't fly here. I know that usually works to ward of the script kiddies but it still frankly insults those of us who have been mired in the documentation since Beta.
So while it's nice that they say that 90% *can* view the site, that reality does not pan out. We were intimately involved with Adobe during dev and release and they acknowledged all the problems we had were the result of bugs they knew about- including the upgrade problems.
It will be fun to use Flex when it is mature. Maybe when they open up those sources? Letting people have access to those can only help Flex mature faster...
troll alert
If we did work together, then who are you?
I have never seen any misrepresentation within the Macromedia/Adobe NPD/Millward-Brown data.
I have seen plenty of anonymous allegation of distortion, including your message.
Stand up for what you believe in. Sign your name, and let other people know how you know what you say you know.
jd/adobe
OK JD
Let's just walk along the river to the ball park while you smoke your pipe and wax brilliantly philosophical. Good enough? Remember when we moved to to Borg Cube? I could go on. Truth is now I have a much better relationship with Adobromedia since having left. They have been very helpful in tracking the life of these bugs and have addressed at least two of them. It's funny that they treat you more respectfully as a customer than an employee- but that is a different discussion.
We are happily coding around the remaining problems and love that you can create your own libraries and not have to rely on the bulky Flex ones. Flex3 with that 48k runtime will be interesting.
What about open sourcing some system stuff so we can write our own? I'd really like a FULL featured Sound object... I even remember getting emails about that wayyyy back in 99.
As far as the numbers go- it's precisely misrepresentation of what the numbers mean. The numbers themselves are only as perfect as what they measure- which is obviously an incomplete data set.
Google Analytics
Just a note that Google Analytics will track what version of the Flash Player people have installed. My stats (for this blog) show that its just under 90%, and that's the same for my other non-technical site as well (http://www.inthehack.com - devoted to curling).
Flex.org shows at just higher than 90%, but that shouldn't surprise anyone.
Probably the best way to do the research would be to go over Google Analytics for every site (have Google put this data out) and let us know what they see over the whole Net that has GA implemented... That would be interesting!
Mike
Quick Question
I just stumbled upon this blog. Hopefully someone can help.
Will Google Analytics track a website built entirely in Flex? Conversion rates and all? We are deciding whether to build a "reservation booking engine" in Flex and our contracted software developers are trying to sell us on this. What do you think?
Thanks,
Bob
Google Analytics does not
Google Analytics does not currently track websites built in Flex. They don't track events in the Flex application. If your conversion page is in your Flex application, there is no easy way to get that data.
However, it can be done. You can call JavaScript from Flex, and when someone clicks on something you could call that JavaScript, and send the information to Google. You would have to write this manually, but it can be done.
Mike